Moe Revenue

The Statistics of 4 Aces

A veteran CRO advocate of our 4 aces forecasting model and world-class poker player advised me that 4 aces can be beaten in poker by a royal flush. For those new to poker, a straight flush is 5 cards of the same suit in numerical order [6,7,8,9 and 10 of diamonds for example]. A royal flush is the highest ranking straight flush made up of the ace, king, queen, jack and 10 in the same suit.

Ok…he is right. In forecasting or poker you can be holding 4 aces and still lose. Here are some of the situations where I had 4 aces and did not get the order or won the order and had it cancelled:

- Fire burned down the factory

- Corporate stopped ALL projects overnight to preserve cash for an acquisition

- Division was sold to a competitor who immediately closed the facility

- Company declared bankruptcy to essentially convert debt to equity

As such, these events become the straight flush and royal flush outcomes in sales. For those who are curious about the statistical probabilities, in poker the probability of a straight flush is 1 in 65,000 and a royal flush is 1 in 650,000.

We have not found a way to estimate these probabilities in sales but they do exist.  Hopefully you have not experienced too many of them!